[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 February 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 FEBRUARY - 23 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Feb:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Feb             22 Feb             23 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Moderlately elevated solar wind speed due to coronal 
hole. No flares observed. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 20 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      15   22334432
      Darwin              13   22333423
      Learmonth           21   23335532
      Culgoora            12   22333422
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra            13   22333432
      Hobart              16   23334432
      Casey(Ant)          20   3-443433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Feb : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2220 0122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active 
22 Feb    19    active 
23 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 19 February 
and is current for interval 22 February only. Again, chance for 
some very mild activity today, due to moderate solar wind speed 
increase from coronal hole. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Feb      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Feb    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Feb    15    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Feb    10    Depressed 15% after local dawn, then recovering 
COMMENT: Mild depression possible next few days southern Aus/NZ 
region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Feb
Speed: 377 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    31700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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