[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Feb             18 Feb             19 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32331111
      Darwin               6   32221112
      Learmonth            6   32221211
      Culgoora             7   22331111
      Camden               7   22331111
      Canberra             8   22332122
      Hobart              11   23441121
      Casey(Ant)          12   4--33212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb : 
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              41   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   0113 2244     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Feb     3    Quiet 
18 Feb     4    Quiet 
19 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 



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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Feb    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 15% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    93700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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