[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 FEBRUARY - 18 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Feb:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Feb             17 Feb             18 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Possible mild coronal hole signature in ACE solar wind 
data, with solar wind speed rising from 400 to 550km/sec over 
the UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22232223
      Darwin               8   22222223
      Learmonth            9   22232232
      Culgoora             8   12232223
      Camden               7   12232222
      Canberra             8   12232223
      Hobart               8   12232223
      Casey(Ant)          17   34433233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Feb : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Feb    12    Unsettled 
17 Feb     6    Quiet 
18 Feb     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Chance for some very mild activity today, due to moderate 
solar wind speed increase from coronal hole. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Feb    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Depressed by 30% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 20% during local day,
     Near predicted monthly values during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 20% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Feb    25    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Feb    25    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Feb    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionospheric MUFs were variable of past 24 hours, with 
depressed (up to 30%) HF conditions observed early in the UT 
day for northern Australia. Enhanced MUFs observed local night 
hours. Normal HF conditions expected today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Feb
Speed: 337 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    59100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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