[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Feb             16 Feb             17 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to remain very low over the next 
three days. The ACE spacecraft indicates the solar wind is presently 
about 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has fluctuated between +/- 2nT over the last several hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101002
      Darwin               3   11100003
      Learmonth            2   11201002
      Culgoora             3   01102--2
      Camden               3   11110112
      Canberra             2   11100002
      Hobart               1   01100002
      Casey(Ant)           7   3-322011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb : 
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Feb     5    Quiet 
17 Feb     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity will likely be quiet to unsettled 
over the next three days. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next three 
days, except for isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes 
and spread F at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Feb    31

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Feb    24    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions over the next three 
days, except for isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes 
and spread F at high latiudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    54000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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