[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Feb             15 Feb             16 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to remain very low over the next 
three days. The ACE spacecraft indicates the solar wind is presently 
about 360 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has fluctuated between +/- 2nT over the last several hours. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12101111
      Darwin               2   21101101
      Learmonth            2   11101201
      Culgoora             3   -3001111
      Camden               3   11102111
      Canberra             3   11102211
      Hobart               3   12-02111
      Casey(Ant)           8   23321222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Feb : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   2210 1000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Feb     5    Quiet 
15 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity will likely be quiet to unsettled 
over the next three days. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next three 
days, except for isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes 
and spread F at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Feb    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Feb    16    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Feb    16    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Feb    14    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions over the next three 
days, except for isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes 
and spread F at high latiudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+05 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Feb
Speed: 452 km/sec  Density:    3.6 p/cc  Temp:   114000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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