[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Feb             14 Feb             15 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27

COMMENT: Expect solar activity to remain very low over the next 
three days. The ACE spacecraft indicates the solar wind has returned 
to just below 400 km/s after reaching just over 500 km/s due 
to passage of high speed wind stream induced by a small cornal 
hole. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has 
remained steady, slightly positive. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23212211
      Darwin               -   --------
      Learmonth            4   22211201
      Culgoora            11   23------
      Camden               6   23212111
      Canberra             5   23211101
      Hobart               7   23312211
      Casey(Ant)           8   3--32211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb : 
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2120 2311     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Feb     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity will likely be quiet to unsettled 
over the next three days. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions for the next three 
days, except for isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes 
and spread F at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
12 Feb    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Feb    22    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect mostly normal HF conditions over the next three 
days, except for isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes 
and spread F at high latiudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   102000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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