[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 12 10:05:40 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to remain very low over the next
three days. The ACE spacecraft indicates the solar wind has climbed
to just over 400 km/s due to small coronal hole. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field varied between -/+ 5nT over
the UT day and is presently about +5nT. The SOHO spacecraft LASCO
C3 images showed a CME first appearing at 0142 UT. It was mostly
southward directed and slightly eastward. It may have glancing
effects on the geomagnetic field in two days time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22312222
Darwin 7 2-------
Learmonth 7 22212321
Culgoora 5 12212212
Camden 5 12212211
Canberra 6 12212312
Hobart 7 22312221
Casey(Ant) 13 24432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 12 Unsettled
13 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Feb 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity will remain at unsettled levels
today. Tomorrow expect it to return to quiet to unsettled levels
with a possibility of a slight increase in activity in two days
due to glancing effects of CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: There may be mild depressions later today due to slight
increase in geomagnetic activity with isolated cases of spread
F and sporadic E. Later in the UT day tomorrow HF conditions
should return to mostly normal.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Feb 26 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 22 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 11 February with
spread F noted at high latitudes and sporadic E noted at low
latitudes. Expect the possiblity of mild depressions today with
isolated cases of sporadic E and spread F. Tomorrow HF conditions
should return to mostly normal.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 294 km/sec Density: 6.2 p/cc Temp: 19600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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