[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 February 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 FEBRUARY - 20 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Feb:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Feb             19 Feb             20 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: No significant flare on disk. A coronal mass ejection 
was visible on teh LASCO spaced based coronagraph behind the 
solar east limb, first visible in C3 at 0742UT. Behind the limb 
events are not geoefective. The event may indicate a new region 
of interest may rotate onto the solar disk. Some brightening 
is visible on the solar north-east limb in SOHO EIT 284 imagery. 
This may or may not be the region of origin. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12212112
      Darwin               4   12211112
      Learmonth            4   12111112
      Culgoora             4   12212111
      Camden               5   12212212
      Canberra             5   12212211
      Hobart               4   12212111
      Casey(Ant)           9   33322212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Feb : 
      Canberra            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              31   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   3233 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Feb     7    Quiet 
19 Feb    13    Unsettled to Active 
20 Feb    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Feb    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Depressed by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 35% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Feb
Speed: 546 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   169000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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