[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb:  76/14

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 
24 hours. The solar wind speed remained between 340 
and 380 km/s throughout the UT day today. The north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, 
remained slightly positive for most part of the UT day. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22221122
      Darwin               6   12221123
      Learmonth            5   21221122
      Culgoora             -   --------
      Camden               4   12111122
      Canberra             3   11210022
      Hobart               4   11211112
      Casey(Ant)          10   33332122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1221 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible. 
07 Feb     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible. 
08 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained at quiet levels over 
the last 24 hours. Almost similar conditions are expected 
to continue for the next three days with some possibility 
of isolated unsettled periods on 06 and 07 February. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days as no significant 
rise in geomagnetic activity is expected during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Feb    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb    23    near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb    23    near predicted monthly values 
08 Feb    23    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
almost all over Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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