[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Feb             06 Feb             07 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 
24 hours. The solar wind speed showed fluctuations 
between 360 and 390 km/s throughout the UT day today. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field, Bz, showed minor to mild (upto +/- 5nT approx.) 
fluctuations the whole day staying slightly negative 
during the first half and slightly positive during the 
second half of the UT day for relatively longer periods. 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels 
during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Feb: Mostly quiet with 
		isolated unsettled conditions. 

Estimated Indices 04 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32212201
      Darwin               4   22211101
      Learmonth            3   22111100
      Culgoora             5   21------
      Camden               5   22211211
      Canberra             7   42-12200
      Hobart               4   22212200
      Casey(Ant)           9   4--32111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Feb : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0001 0121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Feb     5    Quiet 
06 Feb     5    Quiet 
07 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions with isolated 
unsettled conditions were observed over the last 24 hours. 
Almost similar conditions are expected to continue for the 
next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations during the next three days as no significant 
rise in geomagnetic activity is expected during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Feb    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Feb    24    near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb    24    near predicted monthly values 
07 Feb    24    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
almost all over Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Feb
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    60200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"