[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Feb:  79/19

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Feb             05 Feb             06 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind speed showed fluctuations between 340 and 370 
km/s throughout the UT day today. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, showed mild to 
moderate (upto +/- 7nT approx.) fluctuations the whole day 
staying positive for relatively longer periods. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels during the next 
three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11211121
      Darwin               4   21111122
      Learmonth            6   22111231
      Culgoora             4   11111122
      Camden               4   11121121
      Canberra             3   11-111-1
      Hobart               4   11212121
      Casey(Ant)           9   --332131
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Feb : 
      Canberra            38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1001 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Feb     4    Quiet 
05 Feb     4    Quiet 
06 Feb     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain unchanged 
during the next three days as no significant solar activity 
is expected during this period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations during the next three days as no significant 
rise in geomagnetic activity is expected during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 Feb    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Feb    26    near predicted monthly values 
05 Feb    26    near predicted monthly values 
06 Feb    26    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
almost all over Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Feb
Speed: 349 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    75100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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