[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 FEBRUARY - 05 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Feb:  77/16

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Feb             04 Feb             05 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    77/16              77/16              77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind speed showed fluctuations between 300 and 370 
km/s throughout the UT day today. The north-south component of 
the interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, showed mild to moderate 
(upto +/- 7nT approx.) fluctuations the whole day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels during the next three 
days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22121122
      Darwin               5   21121122
      Learmonth            5   21121222
      Culgoora             4   0-121122
      Camden               6   22122122
      Canberra             5   2-12112-
      Hobart               5   22121221
      Casey(Ant)          10   3-332222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Feb : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0021 2102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Feb     4    Quiet 
04 Feb     4    Quiet 
05 Feb     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain unchanged 
during the next three days as no significant solar activity 
is expected during this period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations during the next three days as no significant 
rise in geomagnetic activity is expected during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Feb    25

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Feb    28    near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb    28    near predicted monthly values 
05 Feb    28    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
almost all over Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Feb
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    24300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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