[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb:  78/17

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Feb             03 Feb             04 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low over the last 
24 hours. The solar wind speed showed gradual increase 
from 300 km/s to 320 km/s during the first half of the UT 
day today, then rapidly rose to 380 km/s and then showed 
fluctuations between 320 and 380 km/s during the rest of 
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field, Bz, fluctuated between +/-4nT almost the 
whole day. Solar activity is expected to remain at very 
low levels during the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12212112
      Darwin               4   12212102
      Learmonth            4   12212102
      Culgoora             4   02212112
      Camden               5   12212112
      Canberra             4   022121--
      Hobart               6   12312112
      Casey(Ant)           5   2--22012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb : 
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Feb     6    Quiet 
03 Feb     4    Quiet 
04 Feb     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed over 
the last 24 hours. Conditions are expected to remain 
unchanged during the next three days as no significant 
solar activity is expected during this period. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations during the next three days as no significant 
rise in geomagnetic activity is expected during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Feb    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
03 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
04 Feb    30    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
almost all over Aus/NZ regions during the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 309 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    16600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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