[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z FEBRUARY 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Feb             08 Feb             09 Feb
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
The solar wind speed first gradually decreased from 350 to 
300 km/s by 1700UT and then increased to 320 by the time of 
this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field, Bz, remained negative almost the whole day 
with sustained periods of upto approximately -10nT. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the 
next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 06 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   23323223
      Darwin               9   22223223
      Learmonth           10   22223233
      Culgoora             -   --------
      Camden              10   23323222
      Canberra            11   23323322
      Hobart              10   13323232
      Casey(Ant)          12   33323223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb : 
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1020 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Feb     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled conditions possible. 
08 Feb     5    Quiet 
09 Feb     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity rose upto unsettled levels 
today due to sustained periods of negative Bz. Mostly 
quiet conditions are expected for the next three days 
with some possibility of isolated unsettled periods on 
07 February. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days as no significant 
rise in geomagnetic activity is expected during this period. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Feb    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with periods of degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Feb    23    near predicted monthly values 
08 Feb    24    near predicted monthly values 
09 Feb    24    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
almost all over Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 357 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    59100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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