[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 30 10:38:00 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 85/27 90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds slowly increased and then decreased
over the past 24 hours ranging approximately between 320-380
km/s. Solar region 930 is due to return between 29-31 December.
This may increase solar activity levels depending on how much
the region has decayed since last rotation, otherwise solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next few days.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 930 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 31 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Darwin 4 22110112
Townsville 5 22121122
Learmonth 3 21121011
Camden 2 11110011
Canberra 1 11100011
Hobart 2 11110011
Casey(Ant) 10 33331122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 0102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 5 Quiet
31 Dec 5 Quiet
01 Jan 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Sporadic-E conditions may degrade HF comms at times,
otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for all latitudes for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15-30% at times, otherwise
mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic-E conditions may degrade HF comms at times,
otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for the Aus/NZ region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 334 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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