[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 29 10:05:53 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels today.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 370 km/s
to 320 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to
the normal value almost the whole day today. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Darwin 2 11001102
Townsville 4 12111121
Learmonth 2 11101101
Camden 1 11101001
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 1 00100101
Casey(Ant) 6 23221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 4 Quiet
30 Dec 4 Quiet
31 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet
levels for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal across
Aus/NZ regions for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 43400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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