[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 31 10:48:27 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: Solar region 930 is due to return 31 December. This
may increase solar activity levels depending on how much the
region has decayed since last rotation, otherwise solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next few days. A slow moving
westward directed CME was observed in LASCO imagery at approximately
21UT on 29 December. This CME is thought to be associated with
a disappearing solar filament and has the small chance of a glancing
impact on the Earth during the period 2-4 January. Solar wind
speeds are expected to increase mildly towards the end of the
forecast period due to a small coronal hole rotating into a
geoeffective position over the next few days.
Previously X-flare(s) producing region 930 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 31 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22121111
Darwin 4 22121111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22122211
Camden 4 22121111
Canberra 4 21121111
Hobart 4 12121111
Casey(Ant) 6 ---22221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 5 Quiet
01 Jan 5 Quiet
02 Jan 20 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
and possible minor storm levels at high latitudes.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at quiet
levels for 31 Dec - 1 Jan with a mild increase in activity expected
on 2 January due primarily to a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Sporadic-E conditions may degrade HF comms at times,
otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for all latitudes for the next three days. Mildly degraded conditions
are expected at times on Jan 2 for high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic-E conditions may degrade HF comms at times,
otherwise HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
for the Aus/NZ region for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 347 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 59500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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