[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 25 10:23:46 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar background x-ray flux remains at very low levels.
Solar wind speed remains elevated at 550-650 km/s. The current
coronal hole wind stream should decline over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 22323322
Darwin 8 21223322
Townsville 11 22323332
Learmonth 12 22334322
Camden 8 22223222
Canberra 9 22323222
Hobart 8 22223222
Casey(Ant) 17 3--43333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Camden 92 (Minor storm)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 75 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 2232 3442
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Dec 5 Quiet
27 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain elevated as there was no
significant change to the present coronal hole wind stream over
the UT day. Mostly unsettled conditions observed at low to mid
latitudes. Active conditions observed at high latitudes with
occasional minor storm periods. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions
on day one of the forecast period as solar wind parameters start
to decline. Conditions should become generally quiet by day two.
Recurrence suggests the possibility of elevated geomagnetic activity
on day three, but this is unsupported by current LASCO EIT imagery.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Localised variable HF conditions observed at low to
mid latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance at all latitudes.
Expect continuing variable conditions especially at low latitudes.
General improvement at mid to high latitudes days two and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec -7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec -5 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
26 Dec -5 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Dec -5 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Periods of widespread, persistent and intense sporadic-E
Equatorial/Aus regions mainly after local dawn. Weak ionospheric
support local day/evening especially at mid Aus and S Ocean latitudes.
Periods of disturbance Antarctic region in association with elevated
geomagnetic activity. Expect similar conditions days one to two.
Localised daytime enhancements/nightime depressions possible
Equatorial/N Aus regions. General improvement anticipated at
higher latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 613 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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