[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 26 10:01:26 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels today.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 600 km/s
to 520 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained close to
the normal value almost the whole day today. Solar wind stream
is expected to weaken over the next two days as the effect of
the coronal hole declines. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22322211
Darwin 6 22311212
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 7 22322211
Camden 6 22322111
Canberra 6 22322111
Hobart 7 23322101
Casey(Ant) 16 3-533222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 53 (Unsettled)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3231 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 6 Quiet to unsettled
27 Dec 6 Quiet to unsettled
28 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to show a gradual
decline over the next three days as the solar wind stream is
expected to gradually weaken during this period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show gradual general
improvements on most locations over the next three days.
Minor to mild depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions are possible on 26 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec -5 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
27 Dec -5 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
28 Dec -2 5 to 15% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs are possible across Aus/NZ regions on
26 December. General improvements in HF conditions may be
expected on 27 and 28 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 620 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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