[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 24 10:09:52 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar background x-ray flux remains at very low levels.
Solar wind speed gradually declined over the UT day but remains
above 500 km/s. The current coronal hole wind stream should continue
to decline over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 22333322
Darwin 12 32333322
Townsville 11 22333322
Learmonth 13 21344322
Camden 9 21323322
Canberra 11 22333322
Hobart 11 22333322
Casey(Ant) 21 3-534333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 14 3344 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 5 Quiet
26 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled conditions observed at low to mid latitudes.
Active conditions observed at high latitudes with occasional
minor storm periods. Expect generally unsettled conditions on
day one of the forecast period as solar wind parameters continue
to decline. Conditions should become generally quiet by day two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Localised variable HF conditions observed at low to
mid latitudes. Isolated periods of disturbance at all latitudes.
Expect continuing variable conditions especially at low latitudes.
General improvement at mid to high latitudes days two and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 0 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
25 Dec 0 5 to 10% below predicted monthly values
26 Dec 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Periods of persistent and intense sporadic-E
Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions after local dawn. Weak ionospheric
support local day/evening especially at mid Aus and S Ocean
latitudes. Periods of disturbance Antarctic region in association
with elevated geomagnetic activity. Expect similar conditions
days one to two. Localised daytime enhancements/nightime
depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. General
improvement anticipated at higher latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 662 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 208000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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