[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 21 09:53:07 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Dec             22 Dec             23 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              80/20
COMMENT: Solar background x-ray flux has declined to very low 
levels and there are no sunspot regions on the visible solar 
disk.Solar wind speed ramped up steadily from 600 to 700 km/s 
over the UT day under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream. 
Elevated solar wind speed is expected to persist for days one 
and two. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 20 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   33334333
      Darwin              12   32224323
      Townsville          16   33334333
      Learmonth           15   3333----
      Camden              15   33234333
      Canberra            18   23335333
      Hobart              18   33335233
      Casey(Ant)          17   ---33334
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Camden              69   (Active)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              81   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14   3424 3122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Dec    25    active 
22 Dec    16    active 
23 Dec    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Unsettled to active conditions observed at low to mid 
latitudes, with a brief minor storm interval around 13UT. Active 
to minor storm conditions observed at high latitudes with a major 
storm interval late in the UT day. Solar wind speed increased 
steadily over the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field has remained mildly southward. Expect unsettled 
to active conditions at all latitudes days one and two, with 
the chance of storm periods especially at high latitudes. Conditions 
should decline to mostly unsettled day three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
22 Dec      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
23 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propogation conditions were generally slightly depressed 
at all latitudes over the UT day. Periods of disturbance observed 
at all latitudes in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
Expect similar conditions next 2 -3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Dec    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Dec   -12    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
22 Dec   -10    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
23 Dec   -10    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally slightly depressed ionospheric conditions 
observed at all latitudes mainly local night. Periods of intense 
sporadic-E observed N and S Aus regions during local day/evening. 
Evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ regions. Expect 
ionospheric support to be slightly depressed over the next few 
days due to low solar flux and elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 573 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   175000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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