[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 21 09:53:07 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: * YELLOW *
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: Solar background x-ray flux has declined to very low
levels and there are no sunspot regions on the visible solar
disk.Solar wind speed ramped up steadily from 600 to 700 km/s
over the UT day under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream.
Elevated solar wind speed is expected to persist for days one
and two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: Unsettled to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 16 33334333
Darwin 12 32224323
Townsville 16 33334333
Learmonth 15 3333----
Camden 15 33234333
Canberra 18 23335333
Hobart 18 33335233
Casey(Ant) 17 ---33334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Camden 69 (Active)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 81 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 3424 3122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 25 active
22 Dec 16 active
23 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to active conditions observed at low to mid
latitudes, with a brief minor storm interval around 13UT. Active
to minor storm conditions observed at high latitudes with a major
storm interval late in the UT day. Solar wind speed increased
steadily over the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field has remained mildly southward. Expect unsettled
to active conditions at all latitudes days one and two, with
the chance of storm periods especially at high latitudes. Conditions
should decline to mostly unsettled day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Fair Fair Fair-Poor
22 Dec Normal Normal-Fair Fair
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF propogation conditions were generally slightly depressed
at all latitudes over the UT day. Periods of disturbance observed
at all latitudes in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
Expect similar conditions next 2 -3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec -12 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Dec -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
23 Dec -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally slightly depressed ionospheric conditions
observed at all latitudes mainly local night. Periods of intense
sporadic-E observed N and S Aus regions during local day/evening.
Evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ regions. Expect
ionospheric support to be slightly depressed over the next few
days due to low solar flux and elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 573 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 175000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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