[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 20 10:03:37 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low throughout the UT day.
There are currently no sunspot regions visible on the solar disk.
Solar wind speed has continued to increase with the influence
of the geoeffective coronal hole region and remains elevated
at around 620 km/s at this time. Bz fluctuated throughout the
UT day between +/- 5 nT, consistent with the influence of the
coronal hole region. Expect wind speed to remain elevated, then
begin to decline over the next 24 - 48 hours as the coronal hole
region rotates beyond a geoeffective position. Solar activity
is expected to be very low over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 23343222
Darwin 11 32233223
Townsville 12 23343222
Learmonth 16 23344233
Camden 10 22333222
Canberra 11 22343222
Hobart 12 23343222
Casey(Ant) 18 4--44223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 55 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 1212 1224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 20 Active
21 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
22 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has been Unsettled to Active over
the last 24 hours with a geoeffective coronal hole region causing
elevated solar wind speeds and weak fluctuations in Bz. The effects
of this region are likely to begin to decline in 24 to 48 hours.
A further coronal hole region is likely to become geoeffective
in 2 to 3 days, however, causing Unsettled to Active geomagnetic
conditions to continue.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propogation conditions were significantly depressed
at low latitudes throughout the UT day. Isolated sporadic E was
observed during local night at low latitudes and local day at
mid latitudes, degrading communications at lower HF frequencies.
Expect propagation conditions to be slightly depressed over the
next few days due to geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec -10 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
21 Dec -10 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Dec -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were significantly depressed
in Northern Australian/Pacific regions throughout the UT day.
Isolated sporadic E was observed during local night in Northern
Australian/Pacific regions and local day in Southern Australian
regions, degrading communications at lower HF frequencies. Expect
ionospheric support to be slightly depressed over the next few
days due to geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 63100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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