[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 19 10:28:31 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 DECEMBER - 21 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Dec: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Dec 20 Dec 21 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low throughout the UT day.
Region 930 has rotated to the far-side of the solar disk. There
are currently no sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. Solar
wind speed continued its decline early in the UT day to a value
of 400 km/s at around 10 UT. At this time wind speed began to
increase again due to a recurring coronal hole region moving
into a geoeffective position. Wind speed continued to increase
for the remainder of the UT day and is 510 km/s at the time of
this report (23 UT). Bz, the z component of the IMF, has fluctuated
between +/- 10 nT since 10 UT. Solar activity is expected to
be very low over the next few days.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0921UT
on 18 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 18 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 22232433
Darwin 11 22222433
Townsville 12 22232433
Learmonth 15 22232533
Camden 9 12132323
Canberra 9 12232323
Hobart 9 12132323
Casey(Ant) 20 34-43433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
20 Dec 20 Active
21 Dec 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 16 December
and is current for interval 17-19 December. Geomagnetic activity
has been Unsettled to Active over the last 24 hours with a coronal
hole region moving into a geoeffective position at around 10
UT. Unsettled to Active conditions are expected to persist for
approximately 3 days.
A weak (13nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1018UT on 18 Dec, and a weak (21nT) impulse was observed at
1639UT on 18 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
20 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propogation conditions were slightly depressed at
low and mid latitudes, especially during local night time hours.
Cases of strong sporadic E were observed at mid to high latitudes
throughout the UT day, degrading communications. Expect propagation
conditions to be slightly depressed over the next few days due
to geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Dec -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Dec -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
20 Dec -10 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
21 Dec -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were slightly depressed across
all Australian, Australasian Pacific and New Zealand regions,
especially during local night time hours. Cases of strong sporadic
E were observed in Southern Australian regions throughout the
UT day, degrading communications. Expect ionospheric support
to be slightly depressed over the next few days due to geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Dec
Speed: 566 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 76200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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