[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 06

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 22 10:26:01 EST 2006


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Dec             23 Dec             24 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar background x-ray flux has declined to very low 
levels and there are no sunspot regions on the visible solar 
disk.Solar wind speed maintained ~700 km/s until around 14UT 
then steadily declined to 600 km/s at the end of the UT day. 
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated under the 
influence of a coronal hole wind stream for the next two days. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   32433322
      Darwin              12   32333322
      Townsville          12   32333322
      Learmonth           13   33333322
      Camden              12   32333322
      Canberra            13   32433322
      Hobart              14   33433322
      Casey(Ant)          23   5-543322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Camden              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              61   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             24   4432 4354     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active 
23 Dec    12    Unsettled 
24 Dec    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Unsettled to active conditions observed at low to mid 
latitudes. Minor to major storm conditions observed at high latitudes.
Solar wind speed maintained ~700 km/s until 14UT, then steadily 
declined to 600 km/s by the end of the UT day. The Bz component 
of the IMF maintained a mild negative bias until 14UT, then remained 
mostly neutral. Expect continuing unsettled conditions next three 
days with the chance of active intervals at low to mid latitudes. 
Minor storm periods likely at high latitudes. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Dec      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
23 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Depressed HF propagation conditions observed at all 
latitudes. Expect variable propagation conditions at low to mid 
latitudes and extended periods of disturbance at high latitudes 
in association with geomagnetic activity next three days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Dec   -14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Dec   -12    10 to 30% below predicted monthly values 
23 Dec   -10    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
24 Dec   -10    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally depressed ionospheric conditions observed 
at all latitudes mainly local night. Periods of intense sporadic-E 
observed N and S Aus regions during local day/evening. Evening 
spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ regions. Generally weak 
ionospehere observed over the UT day in mid Aus regions. Expect 
ionospheric support to be slightly depressed over the next few 
days due to low solar flux and elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 644 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:   228000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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