[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 22 10:26:01 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 DECEMBER - 24 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Dec: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Dec 23 Dec 24 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar background x-ray flux has declined to very low
levels and there are no sunspot regions on the visible solar
disk.Solar wind speed maintained ~700 km/s until around 14UT
then steadily declined to 600 km/s at the end of the UT day.
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain elevated under the
influence of a coronal hole wind stream for the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Dec : A K
Australian Region 13 32433322
Darwin 12 32333322
Townsville 12 32333322
Learmonth 13 33333322
Camden 12 32333322
Canberra 13 32433322
Hobart 14 33433322
Casey(Ant) 23 5-543322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Hobart 61 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 24 4432 4354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
23 Dec 12 Unsettled
24 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Unsettled to active conditions observed at low to mid
latitudes. Minor to major storm conditions observed at high latitudes.
Solar wind speed maintained ~700 km/s until 14UT, then steadily
declined to 600 km/s by the end of the UT day. The Bz component
of the IMF maintained a mild negative bias until 14UT, then remained
mostly neutral. Expect continuing unsettled conditions next three
days with the chance of active intervals at low to mid latitudes.
Minor storm periods likely at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal-fair Poor-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
24 Dec Normal-fair Normal Normal
COMMENT: Depressed HF propagation conditions observed at all
latitudes. Expect variable propagation conditions at low to mid
latitudes and extended periods of disturbance at high latitudes
in association with geomagnetic activity next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Dec -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Dec -12 10 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Dec -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
24 Dec -10 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally depressed ionospheric conditions observed
at all latitudes mainly local night. Periods of intense sporadic-E
observed N and S Aus regions during local day/evening. Evening
spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ regions. Generally weak
ionospehere observed over the UT day in mid Aus regions. Expect
ionospheric support to be slightly depressed over the next few
days due to low solar flux and elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Dec
Speed: 644 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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