[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 11 10:35:59 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
Region 930 producing several B-class flares. Solar wind speed
remains elevated and has risen to be ~650km/s at the time of
this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT over the UT day.
The >10MeV proton event is still in progress and is expected
to finish in the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to
be low over the next 3 days. Region 930's magnetic complexity
and actual sunspot size remains relatively unchanged and it has
a small chance of producing an isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 13 23233423
Darwin 10 22223323
Townsville 13 23233333
Learmonth 16 33234423
Camden 12 23223423
Canberra 12 23223423
Hobart 12 23223423
Casey(Ant) 23 4--44334
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 1110 0124
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic activity levels observed
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remains elevated, while
there have been no sustained southward Bz periods. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled for the next 2 days
with possible Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 06 12 2006 1625UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
12 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some disturbed periods and depresssions observed for
low to mid latitudes over the last 24 hours with otherwise normal
HF conditions. High latitudes experienced poor HF conditions
due to PCA effects as the >10MeV proton event is still in progress.
Similar conditions are expected over the next 2 days with minor
degraded HF conditions and depressions in MUFs possible for mid
latitudes. Continued poor HF conditions for trans-polar circuits
are expected for the next 24 hours after which a return to normal
conditions is expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 9 December
and is current for interval 9-11 December. Some disturbed periods
and depressions observed for both Northern Aus/Equatorial and
Southern Aus/NZ regions, with otherwise normal HF conditions.
Notable instances of sporadic E also observed for those regions.
Poor ionospheric support for Antarctic regions due to continued
PCA effects. Similar yet improving conditions are expected over
the next 2 days with the proton event expected to finish by 12Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 491 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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