[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 12 10:35:36 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with Region
930 producing three C-class events. The flares where C1.4(0120UT),
C2.6(0517UT) and C5.7(0818UT). Solar wind speed remains elevated
and is currently ~650km/s. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-5nT
over the UT day, with a slight increase in its magnitude from
1500UT onwards. The >10MeV proton event is still in progress and
is expected to finish in the next 24 hours. Solar activity is
expected to be low over the next few days. Region 930 has a small
chance of producing an isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 24322123
Darwin 8 23222123
Townsville 10 23322223
Learmonth 16 34432124
Camden 9 23322123
Canberra 9 23322123
Hobart 12 24422123
Casey(Ant) 23 45-43234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 64 (Active)
Canberra 77 (Active)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 2313 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
13 Dec 13 Unsettled to Active
14 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Active geomagnetic activity levels observed
over the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remains elevated, while
there have been no sustained southward Bz periods. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly Unsettled for the next 2 days
with possible Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 06 12 2006 1625UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal-fair Poor
13 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some disturbed periods and depresssions observed for
mid latitudes over the last 24 hours with otherwise normal HF
conditions for low to mid latitudes. High latitudes experienced
poor HF conditions due to PCA effects as the >10MeV proton event
is still in progress. Improving conditions are expected over
the next 24 hours with minor degraded HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs possible for mid latitudes. Improving conditions for
high latitudes expected over the next 2 days with the anticipated
finish of the proton event on 12Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values
13 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
14 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some disturbed periods and depressions observed for
both Northern Aus/Equatorial and Southern Aus/NZ regions, with
otherwise normal HF conditions. Notable instances of sporadic
E also observed for Southern Aus/NZ regions. Poor ionospheric
support for Antarctic regions due to continued PCA effects.
Improving conditions are expected over the next 2 days with
the proton event expected to finish on 12Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.6E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 606 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 204000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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