[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 10 10:43:03 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z DECEMBER 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours with Region
930 producing several B-class flares and a C1.3 flare (1059UT).
Solar wind speed remains elevated at just below 600km/s at the
time of this report. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) fluctuated between +/-6nT over the UT day.
The >10MeV proton event is still in progress and is expected
to finish in the next 2 days. Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate over the next 2 days. Region 930's magnetic
complexity has reduced, with only the slight chance of producing
an isolated M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 23211333
Darwin 9 22212333
Townsville 10 23212333
Learmonth 10 23202333
Camden 8 13201323
Canberra 7 23201322
Hobart 8 13201323
Casey(Ant) 18 --42144-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 25 3535 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
12 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity observed over
the last 24 hours. Solar wind speed remains at elevated levels
after a recent transient from a glancing blow CME, while there
have been no sustained southward Bz periods. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be Unsettled to Active over the next 24 hours
followed by mostly Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 06 12 2006 1625UT and is in
progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
11 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Disturbed periods observed for low to mid latitudes
over the last 24 hours with mostly depressed conditions. High
latitudes experienced poor HF conditions due to PCA effects as
the >10MeV proton event is in progress. Similar conditions are
expected over the next 2 days with minor to significant degraded
HF conditions and depressions in MUFs possible for low to mid
latitudes. Continued poor HF conditions for trans-polar circuits
while the PCA event is in progress.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Dec 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Dec 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
11 Dec 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
12 Dec 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 9 December
and is current for interval 9-11 December. Disturbed periods
and generally depressed ionospheric support observed for both
Northern Aus/Equatorial regions and Southern Aus/NZ regions.
Notable instances of sporadic E also observed for those regions.
Poor ionospheric support for Antarctic conditions due to continued
PCA effects. Similar, yet improving conditions are expected over
the next 2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.5E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 293 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 89300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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