[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day. The most significant 
flare of the period was a C1.3 from region 0875 at 0726UT. This 
flare was associated with an eastward-directed CME visible in 
SOHO LASCO imagery, however it is not expected to significantly 
impact the Earth. Region 0875 has again grown in size to 0580 
millionths of the disk and remains a Dki beta-gamma spot group. 
This region is likely to produce further C-class flares and has 
the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21101110
      Darwin               2   21001111
      Learmonth            1   11001010
      Culgoora             2   21001100
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             2   21002100
      Hobart               2   11102110
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3221 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr     3    Quiet 
27 Apr     2    Quiet 
28 Apr     2    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the UT day. A small 
impulse was recorded at all magnetometer stations at ~1300UT. 
Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes. 
These conditions are expected to continue. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Apr    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values / Enhanced to 20% above
predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr    34    Near predicted monthly values / enhanced to 20%. 
27 Apr    39    Near predicted monthly values / enhanced to 20%. 
28 Apr    40    Near predicted monthly values / enhanced to 20%. 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day 
with variable MUF enhancements to 20%, particularly overnight 
in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. Mostly normal HF conditions 
expected next three days with a strengthening ionosphere and 
MUFs generally above predicted monthly values. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 421 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:    88200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends 
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers. 
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"