[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 27 09:36:30 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 1703UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity has been low to moderate over the UT
day. Region 875 provided all the flare activity with an M1.3
near 17UT, numerous B and C class flares including a C9.1 at
1430UT. The SOHO spacecraft LASCO instrument didn't show a CME
and due to AR875 position east of solar central meridian any
CME would not likely be Earth directed. AR875 appears to be slightly
decreasing in magnetic complexity to beta-gamma and flare intensity
is trending down but it still has the potential for large C or
low M class flares as it rotates into geoeffective position in
the next few days. Trailing AR876 has not exhibited flare activity
although it is quite large. AR876 shows moderate magnetic complexity
(beta) that does not appear to have increased. A new AR877 was
numbered today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Darwin 1 20100001
Learmonth 1 21010000
Culgoora 0 11000000
Camden 3 11111121
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 01020000
Casey(Ant) 5 22311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5 3000 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 4 Quiet
28 Apr 4 Quiet
29 Apr 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the UT day. Major
coronal holes are not in evidence on the solar disc and solar
wind speed is low and has been declining from 380 to 340 km/sec,
suggesting little viscous interaction with the geomagnetic field.
IMF Bz observed on the ACE spacecraft has been northward since
14UT and so reconnection has not driven the field. Expect quiet
geomagnetic conditions for the next 3 days, unless flares from
AR875 produce geoeffective CMEs or an extended period of IMF
Bz southwards occurs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes.
These conditions are expected to continue in the absence of major
flaring activity from AR875.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
about 10% above predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 35 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Apr 37 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
29 Apr 40 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day.
Near equatorial latitudes observed 2-3 hour pre-dusk or pre-dawn
MUF enhancements and then depressions, depending on location.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next three days
with a strengthening ionosphere due to extra ionising solar radiation
from AR875 and AR876. MUFs generally above predicted monthly
values by 10-25%.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 391 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 49200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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