[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 06

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Apr             26 Apr             27 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day with just a single 
C1.0 X-ray flare recorded during the period (0400UT), originating 
from active region 0875 (S10E66). This region has grown in size 
and complexity and is now classified as Ekc beta-gamma with an 
area of 0430. It is likely to produce further C-class flares 
and has the potential to produce an isolated M-class flare, hence 
solar activity is forecast as low to moderate. The solar wind 
has returned to pre-coronal hole speeds. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21220001
      Darwin               3   21220001
      Learmonth            3   21220000
      Culgoora             2   11120001
      Camden               3   1-------
      Canberra             1   10120000
      Hobart               2   11120000
      Casey(Ant)           6   32221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1331 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Apr     5    Quiet 
26 Apr     4    Quiet 
27 Apr     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally quiet at mid and 
low latitudes over the UT day. A sudden impulse was recorded 
at all magnetometer stations at ~1100UT producing briefly unsettled 
conditions. Unsettled to active conditions prevailed at high 
latitudes for the first half of the UT day in response to a persistent 
southward IMF and slightly elevated solar wind speeds. The solar 
wind has now returned to pre-coronal hole speeds. Expect quiet 
conditions for the next 24-48 hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes. 
These conditions are expected to continue. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Apr    30

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values / Enhanced to 15% above
predicted monthly mean.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Apr    35    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
26 Apr    39    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
27 Apr    40    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day 
with variable MUF enhancements to 15%. Mostly normal HF conditions 
expected 25-26 April with MUFs generally above predicted monthly 
values. Minor disturbances possible at high latitudes 25 April. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 558 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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