[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr:  87/30


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Apr             25 Apr             26 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day, with all 
recorded activity originating from newly numbered active region 
0875 (S10E77). Solar activity is expected to continue at very 
low to low levels over the UT day, with possible C-class flares 
from region 0875. The solar wind speed is currently declining 
from its coronal hole peak of 600km/s. The IMF is steady near 
IMF Bz ~ 0. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 23 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22210101
      Darwin               3   22210101
      Learmonth            3   22210100
      Culgoora             4   12310101
      Camden               4   12211112
      Canberra             4   12310101
      Hobart               3   12310100
      Casey(Ant)          10   34231121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr : 
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             18   4434 3211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Apr     7    Quiet 
25 Apr     5    Quiet 
26 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally quiet over the UT 
day with an unsettled period 04-08 UT. Expect generally quiet 
conditions for the next 24-48 hours. Isolated active periods 
possible at high latitudes in response to the continuing elevated 
solar wind speed. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at mid and low 
latitudes. Isolated periods of degraded HF observed at high 
latitudes. These conditions are expected to continue. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Apr    26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values / variable enhancements to
15%

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Apr    35    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
25 Apr    39    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
26 Apr    42    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day 
with variable MUF enhancements to 15%. Mostly normal HF conditions 
expected 24-25 April with MUFs generally above predicted monthly 
values. Minor disturbances possible at high latitudes 24 April. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT
** ACE satellite data was not available at the time of this report **

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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