[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 23 09:37:53 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the UT day, with all significant
activity originating from the new flux regions currently rotating
onto the visible disk (east limb). The most notable flare of
the period was a C2.6 at 1639UT. The new flux regions are possibly
returning spot regions 0865 and 0866. On the previous rotation
(06 Apr) Region 0865 produced two M-class flares. Solar activity
is expected to be low over the UT day, with the possibility of
further C-class flares from the east limb. The solar wind speed
is currently elevated (600km/s) and the IMF has steadied after
a period of large Bz fluctuations which included sustained periods
of strongly southward orientation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled. Minor storm
periods at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 33332111
Darwin 10 33332211
Learmonth 12 43342111
Culgoora 9 33332111
Camden 10 33332211
Canberra 11 33342211
Hobart 9 33332101
Casey(Ant) 15 44442111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1221 2422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity ranged from quiet to unsettled
at mid to low latitudes over the UT day. Minor storming occurred
at high latitudes over the first half of the UT day in response
to large IMF Bz fluctuations, and sustained periods of southward
IMF. Expect generally quiet to unsettled conditions to prevail
in response to the continuing elevated solar wind speed. Isolated
active periods possible at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at mid and low
latitudes. Isolated periods of degraded HF observed at high
latitudes. These conditions are expected to continue.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 34
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 39 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
24 Apr 42 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Apr 42 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day.
MUF enhancements observed during the day in the N.Aus/PNG region
and overnight in the S.Aus/NZ region. The ionosphere is expected
to continue strengthening. Mostly normal HF conditions expected
with MUFs generally above predicted monthly values. Minor
disturbances possible at high latitudes 23 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 61700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list