[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 22 09:21:59 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day, the most
notable flare being a B4.5 from region 0871 on the western limb
at 0049UT. Background X-ray flux has increased further to just
below B event level. New flux regions are visible on the eastern
limb, possibly returning regions 0865 and 0866. On the previous
rotation (06 Apr) Region 0865 produced two M-class flares. Solar
activity however is expected to be very low to low over the UT
day. The solar wind and IMF were steady for the first half of
the UT day from when the IMF showed some large fluctuations,
and the solar wind increased to be 550km/s at the time of this
report, likey the effects of a weak coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 11112311
Darwin 6 21112322
Learmonth 5 11112321
Culgoora 4 11012311
Camden 5 11112312
Canberra 5 11112311
Hobart 5 02112311
Casey(Ant) 6 12322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Canberra 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 17 (Quiet)
Hobart 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 0111 2201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet to unsettled over the
UT day. Activity levels increased in the second half of the UT
day with the arrival of fast solar wind stream and associated
IMF instability. Expect similar quiet to unsettled conditions
today with the continuation of elevated solar wind speeds,
returning to quiet conditions by late 23 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes.
Expected to continue next three days. Isolated intervals of
degraded HF possible at high latitudes 22 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 23 near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day.
Minor MUF depressions observed during the day in the N.Aus/PNG
region, and MUF enhancements observed overnight in the S.Aus/NZ
region. Expect mostly normal conditions with a strengthening
ionosphere over the next three days. MUFs near to slightly above
predicted monthly values. Minor disturbances possible at high
latitudes 22 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 31900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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