[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 21 09:15:29 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Apr 22 Apr 23 Apr
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over previous the UT day.
Region 0871 produced two B class flares, however this region
has now rotated off the visible disk. Region 0874 (S02W10) has
grown in size and has the potential to produce isolated C-class
flares. Background X-ray flux has increased from the low level
of the previous few days. The solar wind remained steady at ~400km/s
over the UT day, and the IMF was generally northward apart from
a persistent southward orientation 10-15UT.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 865 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 22 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 12122100
Darwin 4 12122201
Learmonth 6 12232210
Culgoora 3 11122100
Camden 3 11122101
Canberra 2 01122100
Hobart 2 01122100
Casey(Ant) 8 23332110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr :
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 2012 0211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Apr 6 Quiet
23 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was generally quiet over the UT
day with an unsettled period 10-15UT corresponding to an interval
of persistently southward IMF. Expect similar quiet to unsettled
conditions today, and quiet conditions 22-23 April.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed at all latitudes.
Expected to continue next three days. Isolated intervals of degraded
HF possible at high latitudes 21 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Apr 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Apr 19 near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the UT day.
Minor MUF depressions observed during the day in the N.Aus/PNG
region, and MUF enhancements observed overnight in the S.Aus/NZ
region. Expect mostly normal conditions next three days with
MUFs near predicted monthly values. Minor disturbances possible
at high latitudes 21 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 44300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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