[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar 
background X-ray flux remains at very low levels. This is expected 
to continue. A small coronal hole which passed solar central 
meridian late on 17 April may produce elevated solar wind speeds 
over the next 24-48 hours. Currently, solar wind speed is below 
400km/s. IMF Bz remained close to zero throughout the UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110101
      Darwin               2   21100111
      Learmonth            1   10110100
      Culgoora             2   11020101
      Camden               3   11121101
      Canberra             1   10020000
      Hobart               2   10120010
      Casey(Ant)           6   23311111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   3311 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr     7    Quiet to unsettled 
21 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Apr     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the UT day. A small 
equatorial coronal hole may produce briefly unsettled conditions 
late on 20 April, early 21 April. Otherwise expect generally 
quiet conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed low to mid latitudes. 
Strong sporadic E observed local night at high latitudes. Expect 
mostly normal conditions next three days with minor degradation 
possible at high latitudes local dawn 21 April. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr    24    near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr    16    near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed and expected 
Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions. Strong sporadic E observed overnight 
in S.Ocean/Antarctic region. Expect mostly normal conditions 
next three days. Possible high latitude disturbances around 
local dawn 21 April. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 480 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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