[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 20 09:10:44 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar
background X-ray flux remains at very low levels. This is expected
to continue. A small coronal hole which passed solar central
meridian late on 17 April may produce elevated solar wind speeds
over the next 24-48 hours. Currently, solar wind speed is below
400km/s. IMF Bz remained close to zero throughout the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11110101
Darwin 2 21100111
Learmonth 1 10110100
Culgoora 2 11020101
Camden 3 11121101
Canberra 1 10020000
Hobart 2 10120010
Casey(Ant) 6 23311111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Canberra 12 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 3311 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 7 Quiet to unsettled
21 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
22 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the UT day. A small
equatorial coronal hole may produce briefly unsettled conditions
late on 20 April, early 21 April. Otherwise expect generally
quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed low to mid latitudes.
Strong sporadic E observed local night at high latitudes. Expect
mostly normal conditions next three days with minor degradation
possible at high latitudes local dawn 21 April.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 24 near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 16 near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed and expected
Equatorial/Aus/NZ regions. Strong sporadic E observed overnight
in S.Ocean/Antarctic region. Expect mostly normal conditions
next three days. Possible high latitude disturbances around
local dawn 21 April.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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