[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 19 09:26:39 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: No significnt flare activity observed today. Solar background
X-ray flux has declined to very low levels. A weak westward directed
CME was first visible in LASCO C3 imagery at 17/2118. This was
possibly associated with surging in active regions 871/873 near
the west solar limb.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet. Unsettled to active high
latitudes.
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 22110111
Darwin 3 21110112
Learmonth - --------
Culgoora 3 22110111
Camden 4 22111111
Canberra 3 22110101
Hobart 3 22110111
Casey(Ant) 9 43221212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 2110 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr 5 Quiet
21 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet. Elevated solar
wind speed with moderate southward bias in the Bz component early
in the day resulted in geomagnetic storm conditions at polar
cusp latituds only. Solar wind parameters declined steadily after
06UT, with quiet conditions observed at all latitudes over the
second half of the UT day. A small equatorial coronal hole may
produce briefly unsettled conditions late on day one to early
on day two. Otherwise expect generally quiet conditions next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed low to mid latitudes.
Periods of disturbance/depressions mostly local night at high
latitudes. Expect generally improving conditions next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Periods of disturbance local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed and expected Equatorial/Aus/NZ
regions. Periods of disturbance observed S Ocean/Antarctic region,
mainly local night. Expect mostly normal conditions next three
days. Possible high latitude disturbances around local dawn days
1-2.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:40%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 79500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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