[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 18 09:33:22 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: No significnt flare activity observed today. Solar activity
is expected to remain at low to very low levels. The present
coronal hole wind stream is in decline. Its imbedded magnetic
field has remained close to neutral over the past 24 hours, limiting
geomagnetic activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 21111112
Darwin 3 21101112
Learmonth - --------
Culgoora 3 21110102
Camden 4 21111112
Canberra 3 21110112
Hobart 3 21110112
Casey(Ant) 9 23321123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 85 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 4322 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity has declined to mostly quiet. Solar
wind speed remains elevated, but has declined slowly over the
UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
has remained close to neutral most of the day. There has been
a minor Bz southward excursion in progress since about 17UT,
resulting in unsettled to active geomagnetic intervals at polar
cusp latitudes only. Otherwise conditions were quiet with brief
unsettled to active intervals at high latitudes only early in the
UT day. Conditions should remain mostly quiet, with possible
unsettled to active periods at high latitudes days one and two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
19 Apr Normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mid latitude MUFs mildly depressed during local day.
Variable periods of disturbance at high latitudes. Expect similar
conditions days one and two due to persistence of a high speed
coronal hole wind stream. Conditions generally improving day
three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
with variable periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 5 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 5 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable regional HF conditions observed again under
the influence of a high speed coronal hole wind stream. N Aus/S
Aus MUFs generally depressed, especially around local dawn. S
Ocean/Antarctic HF conditions variable with localised periods
of disturbance. The disturbance is due to a coronal hole wind
stream which is in decline. Expect continuing mild depressions
N/S Aus regions and variable disturbances S Ocean/Antarctic regions
next 1-2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+09 (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:34%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 607 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 158000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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