[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 17 09:32:23 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: No significnt flare activity observed today. Solar activity
is expected to remain at low to very low levels. The present
coronal hole wind stream persists, but its imbedded magnetic
field has remained close to neutral over the past 24 hours, with
a subsequent decline in geomagnetic disturbance.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 22233211
Darwin 8 22233212
Learmonth 7 222-----
Culgoora 7 22232211
Camden 7 22232212
Canberra 8 22233211
Hobart 8 22233211
Casey(Ant) 14 34433221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 73 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 29 3544 3543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated, but has declined
slowly over the second half of the UT day. Solar wind magnetic
field has remained close to neutral over the UT day, resulting
in a significant decline in geomagnetic activity from the levels
of the past two days. Regional conditions were generally quiet,
remaining unsettled to active only at polar cusp latitudes. A
mild step increase in solar wind parameters was observed after
10UT, resulting in a brief interval of elevated geomagnetic activity
at 1130UT. Geomagnetic activity is likely to continue to decline
to mainly quiet conditions over the next three days. Possible
unsettled to active periods at high latitudes days one and two.
A weak (12nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetometer data
at 1126UT on 16 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
18 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mid latitude MUFs depressed around local dawn. Extended
periods of disturbance at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions
days one and two due to persistence of a high speed coronal hole
wind stream. Conditions generally improving day three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Extended periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable regional HF conditions observed again under
the influence of a high speed coronal hole wind stream. S Aus/NZ
MUFs generally depressed, especially around local dawn. Sporadic
E conditions observed some stations around local dawn. S Ocean/Antarctic
conditions poor with extended periods of disturbance. The disturbance
is due to a coronal hole wind stream which is expected to decline
days one and two. Expect continuing variable HF conditions next
1-2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 605 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 223000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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