[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 16 09:34:25 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: No significnt flare activity observed today. Solar activity
is expected to remain at low to very low levels. Solar wind speed
peaked at 700 km/s at 1445UT and remains above 550 km/s at the
time of report issue, under the influence of a coronal hole wind
stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 21 23454432
Darwin 18 23354332
Learmonth 28 33355543
Culgoora 20 23454332
Camden 20 23454332
Canberra 25 23464333
Hobart 26 24554433
Casey(Ant) 20 43443-42
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 58 4677 5544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 20 Quiet to active, chance minor storm.
17 Apr 15 Quiet to active.
18 Apr 5 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 11 April and
is current for interval 15-16 April. Solar wind speed peaked
over the mid-part of the UT day. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field maintained a mild (~5nT) soutward bias over the
UT day. A period of active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions
was observed at all latitudes over the mid part of the UT day,
declining to quiet to unsettled conditions at low to mid latitudes
later in the day. Expect continuing unsettled to active conditions
day one, with possible minor storm periods at mid to high latitudes.
Conditions should decline to mostly quiet to unsettled by day
two, becoming mostly quiet on day three. The cause of the disturbance
is an extensive northern hemisphere coronal hole, currently in
the mid-western solar hemisphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mid latitude MUFs depressed around local dawn. Extended
periods of disturbance at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions
days one and two due to persistence of a high speed coronal hole
wind stream. Conditions generally improving day three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day/night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Extended periods of disturbance over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 15 April
and is current for interval 15-16 April. Variable regional HF
conditions observed again under the influence of a high speed
coronal hole wind stream. S Aus/NZ MUFs generally depressed,
especially around local dawn. Sporadic E conditions observed
some stations around local dawn. S Ocean/Antarctic conditions
poor with extended periods of disturbance due to minor geomagnetic
storming. The disturbance is due to a coronal hole wind stream
which is expected to persist for day one, declining later on
day two. Expect continuing variable HF conditions next 1-2 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 526 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 143000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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