[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 15 09:45:34 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Apr 16 Apr 17 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: No significnt flare activity observed today. Solar activity
is expected to remain at low to very low levels. Solar wind speed
remained around 500km/s over the UT day due to a recurrent high-speed
coronal hole wind stream. The wind stream contains a significant
southward-bias magnetic field.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Unsettled to Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A K
Australian Region 41 34564644
Darwin 43 34574543
Learmonth 46 34573545
Culgoora 34 24564543
Camden 31 24563533
Canberra 52 35-74644
Hobart 37 35--4644
Casey(Ant) 36 33353734
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr :
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Culgoora 12 (Quiet)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 40
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 13 2232 4423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Apr 30 Active to Minor storm
16 Apr 20 Active
17 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 11 April and
is current for interval 15-16 April. Solar wind speed remained
above 500 km/s over the UT day. The southward trend in Bz observed
late yesterday continued, with Bz maintaining -15nT for some
hours during the first half of the UT day. Minor to severe geomagnetic
storm periods were observed at all latitudes during this period.
The Bz component returned briefly to neutral, then maintained
a moderate southward bias during the second half of the UT day
when again active to minor storm periods were observed at all
latitudes. Expect continuing active to storm periods days one
and two as the coronal hole wind stream persists. Conditions
should decline to active to unsettled by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Apr Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
16 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
17 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Low latitudes MUFs enhanced by equatorial spread-F.
Mid latitudes depressed around local dawn. Extended periods of
disturbance at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions days
one and two due to persistence of a high speed coronal hole wind
stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Apr 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 95% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 95% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Apr 35 20 to 30% above predicted monthly values
16 Apr 25 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Highly variable regional HF conditions observed under
the influence of a high speed coronal hole wind stream.Equatorial/N
Aus regional MUFs significantly enhanced by equatorial spread-F.
S Aus MUFs enhanced overnight, but depressed around local dawn.
Sporadic E conditions observed local evening/dawn. S Ocean/Antarctic
conditions mostly depressed with extended periods of disturbance
due to major geomagnetic storming. The disturbance is due to
a coronal hole wind stream which is expected to persist at current
levels for days one and two. Expect continuing variable HF conditions
next 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 50600 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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