[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 600 to 450km/sec over 
the UT day. 27 day recurrence patterns suggests that solar wind 
speed is expected to remain low for the next two days, then return 
to elevated speeds (approx 600km/sec) for 15-16 Apr. No significant 
flare activity observed in the past 24 hours. Solar region 870 
in the south-east soalr quadrant produced some minor C class 
events. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22111102
      Darwin               3   22111101
      Learmonth            4   22111202
      Culgoora             4   22111102
      Camden               3   22111101
      Canberra             4   22121102
      Hobart               4   22111102
      Casey(Ant)           9   33322211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr : 
      Canberra            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             18   4543 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 11 April and 
is current for interval 15-16 April. Quiet geomagnetic conditions 
next two days, then increasing to active levels, with chance 
of minor storm periods Apr 15-16. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Apr    28

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Normal conditions expeced. However, mildly degraded 
HF conditions may be experienced during local night hours 15-17 
Apr, southern Aus/NZ region only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 651 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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