[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:YELLOW     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar wind speed moderately elevated at 600km/sec. The 
new region (871) that rotated around the west limb yesterday, 
appears to be just a single spot. The Sun has been flare quiet 
over the last 24 hours. 

IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
 from solar region(s):number 867.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33432321
      Darwin               9   23322312
      Learmonth            9   23322321
      Culgoora            11   23432311
      Camden              12   23432312
      Canberra            13   33432321
      Hobart              13   33432321
      Casey(Ant)          14   44422221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr : 
      Canberra           109   (Major storm)
      Learmonth           25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Culgoora            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart             108   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             39   4564 4455     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
12 Apr     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods possible today, then generally quiet to 
unsettled conditions expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions possible local night hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Apr    39

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 30% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 80% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 569 km/sec  Density:    9.1 p/cc  Temp:   300000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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