[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 10 APRIL - 12 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Apr:  89/33


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Apr             11 Apr             12 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed rose from 300 to 600km/sec over the UT 
day. The rise in wind speed is due to a coronal hole wind 
stream. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was southward 00-08UT. A new spotted region has rotated 
onto the solar disk near the solar equator. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Apr: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 09 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      19   34434333
      Darwin              18   34434233
      Learmonth           19   33434343
      Culgoora            20   33534333
      Camden              19   23534333
      Canberra            22   34534333
      Hobart              23   34544333
      Casey(Ant)          18   35333233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Apr : 
      Canberra            30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            8   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              53   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1012 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Apr    12    Unsettled 
11 Apr    12    Unsettled 
12 Apr     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Active periods observed last 24 hours. Further isolated active 
periods possible next few days, associated with a coronal 
hole wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
possible at high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Apr    40

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 45% during local night.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
     Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Apr
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    41100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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