[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20
COMMENT: No flare events observed over the past 24 hours. Solar 
X-ray background flux declined steadily over the UT day. Solar 
wind speed declined to nominal levels. A large northern hemisphere 
coronal hole is currently at central solar meridian. This feature 
is expected to produce an elevated solar wind stream from day 
two. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               2   11010111
      Learmonth            1   21000010
      Culgoora             0   01000000
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             0   01000010
      Hobart               0   01000001
      Casey(Ant)           7   23321111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Apr : 
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2301 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Apr    14    Unsettled to Active 
15 Apr    25    Active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 11 April and 
is current for interval 15-16 April. Solar wind parameters declined 
to nominal levels. The geomagnetic field was quiet over the past 
24 hours. A recurrent high speed coronal hole wind stream is 
expected to produce unsettled conditions on day two, becoming 
active on day three with possible storm periods. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions observed over the UT day. Expect 
high latitude degradations days two and three in association 
with elevated geomagnetic activity 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr    27

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      No data available during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
15 Apr    10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Normal conditions expected day one. Mildly degraded 
HF conditions may be experienced during local night hours 15-17 
Apr, southern Aus/NZ region. Significant degradations possible 
Antarctic region 14-17 Apr. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A7.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 539 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    91100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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