[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 5 09:55:28 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
GOES spacecraft shows several B-class flares during this period
associated with region 10867. 10865 has grown to 650 mils in
area but appears stable at this time. C-class flares may occur
today with a slight chance of a M-class flare. Expect solar activity
to be low for the next 2-3 days. Solar wind velocity has gradually
increased to 330km/s. The ACE spacecraft shows the Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field shiftng southward at 0630
UT 4 April. Initially to -10nT and presently at -7nT.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 865,number 866.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 12222222
Darwin 5 11221222
Learmonth 9 11222333
Culgoora 5 11222122
Camden 5 11221222
Canberra 7 12222223
Hobart 6 12222222
Casey(Ant) 9 23321123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 12 Unsettled
06 Apr 12 Unsettled
07 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours. Unsettled conditions expected for the next 2 days
mainly because the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field is oriented southward.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes
during the last 24 hours. Isolated cases of spread F at high
latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for today. However,
in the next 2 days disturbances may occur due to the southward
orientation of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values
06 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Apr 25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail today. However,
over the next 2-3 days expect possible mild disturbances and
slightly depressed MUFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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