[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 6 09:13:42 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solat region 867 located at S17W22 on the solar disk
produced two impulsive C class events. Further isolated low level
flaring may be possible from 867. The north south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was mildly southward (8nT)
during the interval 00-14UT, afterwhich Bz swung northward. Solar
wind speed increased from 300 to 400km/sec. This increasing velocity
trend suggests a coronal hole signature in the solar wind. However,
the coronal hole feature on the solar disk is to the east of
solar central meridian (CM), normally coronal hole wind stream
effects are observed 2-3 days after CM passage. This may mean
that solar wind speeds will remain moderately elevated over the
next 2 to 3 days.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 865,number 867.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 17 23335332
Darwin 21 23246332
Learmonth 3 1-------
Culgoora 9 2223----
Camden 17 23335332
Canberra 24 23346342
Hobart 13 2334-331
Casey(Ant) 11 33224221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 0013 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
07 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
08 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mild overnight geomagentic activity in association with
mild southward interplanetary magnetic field conditions. The
IMF has now swung northward so mild activity may decline today,
depsite mildly elevated solar wind conditions. Isolated active
periods remain possible next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal-Fair Fair Fair-Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected on day 1 of forecast period
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced conditions observed yesterday. MUFs in the
Aus/NZ region have not responded to mild over night geomagnetic
activity. Generally expect normal HF conditions to prevail today.
Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local
night hours next two to three days southern Aus/NZ region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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