[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Apr             05 Apr             06 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was low. GOES 
spacecraft shows two C-class flares over the last 24 hours. One 
from the region 10867 which appears to developing quickly in 
complexity and the other from region 10865 which has a complex 
magnetic field, beta-gamma/delta magnetic class. Expect solar 
activity to increase over the next 2-3 days, low to moderate. 
Isolated M-class flares are possible. Solar wind velocity remains 
at 280 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has been mostly northward and less than 5nT. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11000101
      Darwin               2   11000102
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Culgoora             1   11000101
      Camden               3   21111111
      Canberra             0   10000001
      Hobart               0   01000001
      Casey(Ant)           4   13211100
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   1000 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
05 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions expected for the next 
2-3 days. 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes 
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next 2-3 days, with possible high latitude disturbances. 
Spread F noted at Hobart station for local night. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Apr    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Apr    18    near predicted monthly values 
05 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
06 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail over the next 
2-3 days with a possibility of high latitude distubances. Spread 
F noted at Hobart during local night. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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