[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 3 09:48:29 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
GOES spacecraft shows serveral B-class flares over the last 24
hours. Activity originating from both regions 10865 and 10866.
There is a possibility these regions could produce C-class x-ray
flares over the next 2-3 days. Solar wind velocity has slowly
decreased and is presently 280 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has been mostly northward and less
than 5nT. SOHO LASCO images show a CME commencing at 0918 UT,
02 April on west limb. It appears to be back side due to no associated
front side activity noted. Therefore, should have minimal terrestrial
effects.
IPS/USAF Learmonth Observatory reports good flare potential
from solar region(s):number 865,number 866,number 866.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 21101011
Darwin 2 21001---
Learmonth 2 22001000
Culgoora 0 10000001
Camden 7 21211233
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 0 11000000
Casey(Ant) 4 23211001
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 6 Quiet
04 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions should prevail today with quiet
to unsettled conditions the following two days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 2-3 days, with possible high latitude disturbances.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
No data available during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail over the next
2-3 days with a possibility of high latitude distubances.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information. The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. Occasionally IPS sends
email promoting IPS products and services to its mailing list customers.
If you do not wish to receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list