[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 06

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr:  87/30

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Apr             03 Apr             04 Apr
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low. 
GOES spacecraft shows serveral B-class flares over the last 24 
hours most likely caused by region 10865. There is a possibility 
this region could produce C-class x-ray flares over the next 
2-3 days, which would have a minimal terrestrial effect. Solar 
wind velocity has slowly decreased over the last UT day and is 
presently 310 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field has been mostly northward and less than 5nT. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 01 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101101
      Darwin               2   11101102
      Learmonth            0   10000100
      Culgoora             1   11001101
      Camden               6   11112223
      Canberra             0   00001100
      Hobart               1   10101100
      Casey(Ant)           4   22310101
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr : 
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station. 


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   1012 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Apr     6    Quiet 
03 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last 
24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions should prevail for the next 
2-3 days with a possibility of unsettled conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes 
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next 2-3 days, with possible high latitude disturbances. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Apr    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  15

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
03 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
04 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail over the next 
2-3 days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)  
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A6.8

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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