[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 April 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 2 09:07:12 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z APRIL 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 87/30
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
GOES spacecraft shows serveral B-class flares over the last 24
hours most likely caused by region 10865. There is a possibility
this region could produce C-class x-ray flares over the next
2-3 days, which would have a minimal terrestrial effect. Solar
wind velocity has slowly decreased over the last UT day and is
presently 310 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field has been mostly northward and less than 5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11101101
Darwin 2 11101102
Learmonth 0 10000100
Culgoora 1 11001101
Camden 6 11112223
Canberra 0 00001100
Hobart 1 10101100
Casey(Ant) 4 22310101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1012 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 6 Quiet
03 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions should prevail for the next
2-3 days with a possibility of unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 2-3 days, with possible high latitude disturbances.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 15
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect normal HF conditions to prevail over the next
2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.8
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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