[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 March 06
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 1 10:32:20 EST 2006
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z MARCH 2006 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Apr 02 Apr 03 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity over the last 24 hours was very low.
GOES spacecraft shows serveral B-class flares over the last 24
hours most likely caused by region 10865. There is a possibility
this region could produce C-class x-ray flares over the next
2-3 days, which would have a minimal terrestrial effect. The ACE
spacecraft shows the solar wind velocity has remained steady
between 350 and 380 km/s and is presently 360km/s. Also, that
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remained
within +/- 5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21122121
Darwin 5 21222121
Learmonth 5 11113220
Culgoora 3 11122011
Camden 5 21122121
Canberra 4 21122120
Hobart 5 21123120
Casey(Ant) 8 23322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar :
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1100 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Apr 6 Quiet
02 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions should prevail today with a
possibility of unsettled conditions to develope during the next
2 days due to a weak coronal hole.
AUTOMATED GEOMAGNETIC STORM DURATION FORECAST
Dst-index storm peak of -132 observed at 31 03 06 at 1845 UT
Geomagnetic storm end expected at: NA
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over all latitudes
during the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for
the next 2 days, with possible high latitude disturbances. Notable
exceptions include isolated cases of sporadic E at low latitudes
in the late evening and earily night hours and isolated cases
of spread F in the late night earily morning hours at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Mar 25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Apr 24 Near predicted monthly values
02 Apr 24 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 24 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected today. Noted isolated
cases of sporadic E in late evening and earily night hours at
low latitudes, as well as isolated cases of spread F in late
night to earily morning hours at high latitudes. Expect similar
conditions to prevail over the next 2-3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 365 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 42600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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